Why I'm worried.

First thing: this isn't a Republican vs. Democrat thing. I know it'll sound like one. But the problem isn't politics. It's that the basic rules our country runs on are getting bent in ways nobody planned for.

When the Founders built our government, they knew laws alone couldn't hold it together. The system runs on rules that aren't written down. People in power just agree to follow them. Presidents follow court orders, even when they don't want to. Congress sticks up for its own job. Government workers say no to orders that cross the line. For almost 250 years, these habits have kept things running. Most of us trust them without thinking about it.

I want to be clear. This isn't about whether you like the current President or not. I'm not arguing about certain bills, taxes, or rules. Those are things where good people can disagree. I'm writing about something deeper. It's about how the system itself is supposed to work, not what any one leader is doing.

Every President pushes on the limits in some way. We've made it through hard times before. Watergate. The Civil War. What worries me now isn't one thing. It's many things happening at once, faster than the system can handle. Everything below has happened in about the past year. Even this is only part of the picture. If a President I liked were doing these same things, I'd still be writing this.

The Eight

What's actually on the table.

01

The President can't really be charged with crimes anymore.

In Trump v. United States (2024), the Supreme Court ruled that a President basically can't be prosecuted for things he does in office. That's a huge change. For 250 years the rule was simple: nobody is above the law. Not anymore. Three Justices wrote a dissent. They were unusually blunt about why. Read it.

In Trump v. United States (603 U.S. 593, 2024), the Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that a President is fully shielded from criminal charges for "core" presidential actions, and mostly shielded for everything else he does in office. The Court also said judges can't even look at what the President was thinking when he acted. And they can't call an act "unofficial" just because it broke a law.1

Here's why that's a big deal. Before this ruling, the rule was simple: the President had to follow criminal law like everyone else. After this ruling, that's only true for a narrow set of clearly personal actions. Anything that even looks like part of the job sits in a protected zone the courts haven't figured out yet.

"With fear for our democracy, I dissent."Justice Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson2

The dissent said the decision "reshapes the institution of the Presidency" and "makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law." Justices don't write like that unless they think something serious just happened.

The Constitutional Accountability Center, a legal group that filed a brief in the case, said the President's immunity claim has "no basis in constitutional text and history or Supreme Court precedent."1 The Markkula Center at Santa Clara University pointed out the strange spot the ruling puts judges in: they can't look at what the President was thinking, and the fact that an action broke a law isn't enough by itself to make it unofficial.3

This isn't just theory. In practice, the ruling makes it much harder to charge a former President with a crime. And it leaves lower courts trying to figure out, case by case, what counts as "official" job conduct. That's a lot of weight on a question nobody has a clean answer to.

Sources for this point

  1. 1Constitutional Accountability Center. Trump v. United States. theusconstitution.org
  2. 2Supreme Court of the U.S. Trump v. United States, 603 U.S. 593 (2024). Sotomayor, J., dissenting. supremecourt.gov
  3. 3Markkula Center, Santa Clara University. Trump v. United States and the Ethics of Presidential Immunity. July 2025. scu.edu
02

The President is grabbing control of how your tax dollars get spent.

The Constitution is clear: Congress decides how to spend taxpayer money. The President's job is to spend it. This administration is just refusing to spend money Congress already approved. That breaks a 1975 Supreme Court case (Train v. New York) and a 1974 law passed for exactly this reason. If it sticks, the most basic deal in our Constitution, the one where Congress (not the President) controls the money, ends up belonging to the President.

Article I, Section 9 of the Constitution gives Congress, not the President, the power to decide how federal money is spent. A 1974 law (the Impoundment Control Act) made it crystal clear: the President can't decide on his own to skip spending money Congress approved. The Supreme Court backed this up in Train v. City of New York in 1975.

This administration is testing that directly. Executive orders in early 2025 froze payments under federal grants, loans, and assistance programs without asking Congress.1 In August 2025, Russ Vought (head of the White House budget office) tried a trick called a "pocket rescission." He sent Congress a request to cancel funding within 45 days of the fiscal year ending, hoping to run out the clock so the money would expire by default.2 The Government Accountability Office, the federal watchdog that oversees government spending, said the move is illegal.3

"Article I of the Constitution makes clear that Congress has the responsibility for the power of the purse. Any effort to rescind appropriated funds without congressional approval is a clear violation of the law."Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Chair, Senate Appropriations3

Stanford Law Review (July 2025) said there's no real legal case for the President controlling spending this way, and warned that letting him do it would gut the separation of powers.4 The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities documented Republican senators having to ask White House officials "to release funds they themselves appropriated."1

This is the most basic separation-of-powers question we have. If the President can decide not to spend money Congress approved, then the power of the purse moves to the President in practice, no matter what the Constitution actually says.

Sources for this point

  1. 1Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Trump Administration's Disregard of Appropriations Legislation. February 2025. cbpp.org
  2. 2House Budget Committee Democrats. "Pocket Rescissions" Are Illegal. August 29, 2025. democrats-budget.house.gov
  3. 3Government Executive. Trump moves to unilaterally withhold funds, drawing bipartisan calls of illegality. August 29, 2025. govexec.com
  4. 4Zachary S. Price. Trumpian Impoundments in Historical Perspective. Stanford Law Review Online, July 2025. stanfordlawreview.org
03

The administration is treating laws as optional.

The Department of Justice has publicly said it won't enforce laws it doesn't like. The Epstein Files law is the clearest example. The President is claiming the right to ignore any law Congress passes that he disagrees with. Some scholars defend a very narrow version of this idea. What's happening now is much bigger than that. And it's never been how our country actually works.

The Epstein Files Transparency Act passed Congress in November 2025 with support from both parties and was signed into law. It required the Department of Justice to release the Epstein files within 30 days, with only narrow exceptions (to protect victims, for example).

The deadline (December 19, 2025) came and went. DOJ released less than 10% of the roughly 100,000 files it has, and most of what they did release was already public and heavily blacked out.1 Before the deadline, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced DOJ would miss it and would release documents on its own schedule instead.1, 2

Austin Sarat, a professor at Amherst College, wrote that the refusal "was intentional and open."1 Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) called for an Inspector General audit, saying "by the Department's own admission, it is in violation of the law."3 The DOJ Inspector General opened that investigation in April 2026.4

Some scholars defend a narrow version of the idea that the President can ignore certain laws, but only when there's a real constitutional conflict. That's not what's happening here. The administration is just refusing to do what a law says and daring anyone to stop them. And it's working. As of May 2026, more than 150 days past the deadline, three million pages of Epstein files still haven't been released.5

This matters beyond the Epstein files. If the President can refuse to enforce a law just by saying he won't, then "law" stops meaning what it's supposed to mean. It becomes something the President can ignore whenever he feels like it. That's a much weaker thing than what the Constitution says we have.

Sources for this point

  1. 1Austin Sarat. Why It Matters That the Justice Department Ignored the Law About the Epstein Files. Verdict (Justia), December 24, 2025. verdict.justia.com
  2. 2Sen. Ron Wyden. Statement on Deputy AG Blanche. finance.senate.gov
  3. 3Sens. Lisa Murkowski & Richard Blumenthal. Announce Inspector General Audit of DOJ's Failure to Release the Full Epstein Files. April 24, 2026. murkowski.senate.gov
  4. 4MSNBC. DOJ inspector general to review compliance with Epstein Files Transparency Act. April 23, 2026. ms.now
  5. 5Democracy Defenders Fund. Statement by Amb. Norman Eisen. April 21, 2026. democracydefendersfund.org
04

Court rulings only matter if the President agrees to follow them.

Here's how it works: judges rule, U.S. Marshals enforce. The Marshals work for the President. When the President refuses to enforce a court ruling against himself, the courts have almost no real power left. Alexander Hamilton spelled this out 250 years ago. Courts, he said, have "neither force nor will, but merely judgment."

This problem isn't new. Hamilton called courts the "least dangerous branch" in Federalist 78 because they have "neither force nor will, but merely judgment." Court rulings get enforced by the President's people: the U.S. Marshals, the Department of Justice. When the President refuses to enforce a ruling that goes against him, the courts have very few real tools left.

Here are some examples. In the National Guard cases, a federal judge ruled in August 2025 that deploying troops to Los Angeles broke a 150-year-old law that keeps the military out of civilian policing (the Posse Comitatus Act). A second judge issued another order against it in December 2025.1, 2 The administration appealed each time and kept the troops deployed while the appeals worked their way through the courts.

"[An] argument for a president to hold unchecked power to control state troops would wholly upend the federalism that is at the heart of our system of government."Judge Charles Breyer2

In the Mark Kelly case (more on this in point 07), a federal grand jury refused to approve sedition charges. Judge Richard Leon ruled that Defense Secretary Hegseth's actions against Sen. Kelly were illegal retaliation. Hegseth's response on X: "This will be immediately appealed. Sedition is sedition, 'Captain.'"3 DOJ's argument in court was that Hegseth's actions were "unreviewable by federal courts or, at the very least, owed a great deal of deference by judges."3

The pattern is the same every time. Courts rule. The administration appeals and keeps doing whatever it was doing. By the time the appeals are over, the situation on the ground has already changed. The only formal way to force the President to follow a court order is to hold him in contempt. And contempt is also enforced by the President's people. There's no clean answer to this when the President just refuses to follow the rules.

Sources for this point

  1. 1Office of the Governor of California. Federal Court to Trump: keeping a standing army is illegal. December 10, 2025. gov.ca.gov
  2. 2NPR. Judge blocks Trump's National Guard deployment in LA with sharp rebuke. December 10, 2025. npr.org
  3. 3CNN Politics. Judge says Pete Hegseth is unlawfully retaliating against Sen. Mark Kelly over "illegal orders" video. February 12, 2026. cnn.com
05

The federal government is quietly taking over who gets to vote.

The Constitution leaves elections up to the states. But once you have to show federal documents (a passport, a REAL ID) just to register to vote, the states still technically run elections, while the federal government decides who's actually allowed to vote. This is the slickest move on this list, and the one I'm least sure about legally. The case law against it is thin.

Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution gives states the power to run elections (the "times, places, and manner" of voting), with Congress only able to override on how elections are administered. In 2013, the Supreme Court ruled in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council that "nothing in the Constitution lends itself to the view that voting qualifications in federal elections are to be set by Congress."1

The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) would require proof-of-citizenship documents to register to vote in federal elections. Acceptable documents include passports and birth certificates. A driver's license, even a REAL ID, doesn't count by itself.2, 3 The House passed the bill in February 2026.1

The Brennan Center estimates 9% of eligible voters, about 21.3 million Americans, don't have easy access to citizenship documents.4 Almost half of Americans don't have a U.S. passport.4 In West Virginia, Mississippi, and Alabama, more than 70% don't.3

The basic idea, that only citizens should vote, is fine. Both parties agree on that, and it's already federal law under a 1996 statute.2 The problem is how this bill does it. Once you require federal documents to vote, the states still technically run their voter rolls, but the federal government decides who's allowed to register. The feds control who gets a passport, and they set the standards for REAL ID. Tie voting to those documents and real control over who can vote moves from the states to federal agencies.

The League of Women Voters and Center for American Progress have both flagged this. The bill flips the usual rule on its head: instead of the government having to prove you can't vote, you have to prove you can. And prove it with federal paperwork.3, 5

Sources for this point

  1. 1North Dakota Monitor. Citizenship voting requirement in SAVE America Act has no basis in the Constitution. February 19, 2026. northdakotamonitor.com
  2. 2Bipartisan Policy Center. Five Things to Know About the SAVE America Act. February 2026. bipartisanpolicy.org
  3. 3League of Women Voters. The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act is a Trick. lwv.org
  4. 4PBS NewsHour. House passes Republican bill requiring voters provide proof of U.S. citizenship. April 10, 2025. pbs.org
  5. 5Center for American Progress. The SAVE Act: Overview and Facts. March 2026. americanprogress.org
06

A federal force for use inside the U.S. is being built up fast.

The military can't be used to police Americans. That's a 150-year-old law called the Posse Comitatus Act. But Homeland Security agencies (ICE, Border Patrol) aren't covered by it. Border Patrol has unusual powers within 100 miles of any U.S. border, an area where about two-thirds of Americans actually live. Recent legislation just gave these agencies a massive funding boost. And National Guard troops have already been deployed in U.S. cities over the objections of governors.

The Posse Comitatus Act (1878) keeps the military out of policing Americans on U.S. soil. But the agencies inside Homeland Security, like ICE and Border Patrol, aren't covered by that law. Border Patrol has unusual legal powers within 100 miles of any U.S. border, an area that includes about two-thirds of all Americans.

The funding has gone through the roof. The 2025 reconciliation bill gave $75 billion to ICE alone.1 In May 2026, Senate committees released a follow-up $72 billion package, with $38 billion more for ICE and $26 billion for Customs and Border Protection.2 The American Immigration Council pointed out that the combined funding makes ICE's budget about eleven times what it was in 2025, and CBP's about 3.5 times.1

"The amounts provided in the legislation significantly exceed annual appropriations provided in the past for similar activities and would be made available for a longer period of obligation."Congressional Budget Office3

And troops have already been deployed inside the U.S. On June 7, 2025, for the first time in American history, a President used a federal law (10 U.S.C. § 12406) to take control of a state's National Guard against the governor's wishes. He moved 4,000 California National Guard members under federal control to do civilian policing in Los Angeles.4 Similar deployments followed in Chicago and Portland.5 Federal courts ruled the LA deployment broke the Posse Comitatus law. The administration kept doing it anyway while it appealed.

What's being built is a militarized police force for use inside the United States, sitting outside the rules designed to prevent exactly that. Whether you trust this President, or a future one, to use it responsibly is a separate question. The force is now there, at scale, no matter who's in charge.

Sources for this point

  1. 1American Immigration Council. Senate Pushes Ahead with $70 Billion More for ICE and CBP. May 2026. americanimmigrationcouncil.org
  2. 2Roll Call. Reconciliation bill text would fund ICE, CBP, ballroom security. May 5, 2026. rollcall.com
  3. 3Congressional Budget Office. Reconciliation Legislation of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and the Senate Committee on the Judiciary. May 2026. cbo.gov
  4. 4Office of the Governor of California. As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard. October 31, 2025. gov.ca.gov
  5. 5NPR. Judge blocks Trump's National Guard deployment in LA. December 10, 2025. npr.org
07

The military is being pressured to obey illegal orders.

Every service member learns two things on day one. Follow lawful orders. Refuse unlawful ones. That's the law, going back to the Nuremberg trials after World War II. When civilian leaders accuse officers of "sedition" just for reminding their troops about this duty, nobody has to issue an actual order. The threat does the work.

Under military law (Article 92 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice) and the rules that came out of the Nuremberg trials, service members must obey lawful orders. They are not required to carry out unlawful ones. This is bedrock. It's taught at every level. It's built into the oath every officer takes.

In November 2025, six members of Congress, all veterans of the military or intelligence community, released a video reminding service members of this duty. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was one of them. The President publicly called the video "seditious" and said the lawmakers' conduct was "punishable by death."1 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the group the "Seditious Six."1

Hegseth then opened an investigation into Kelly, sent him a letter of censure, and announced he would cut Kelly's military retirement rank and pay. Hegseth's reason: that Kelly "characterized lawful military operations as illegal and counseled members of the Armed Forces to refuse lawful orders."2

A federal grand jury refused to approve sedition charges in February 2026. Judge Richard Leon ruled that Hegseth's actions were illegal retaliation, going after "unquestionably protected speech" that is "entitled to special protection" under the law.3 Hegseth said he would immediately appeal.

Here's what matters. Nobody had to order anyone to stop refusing illegal orders. Instead, the message went out: bring this up in public, and you could lose your career or face prosecution. That's harder to fight than a direct order. There's no one clear moment to refuse. The duty just wears away under the pressure.

"He is going to prosecute me under the Uniform Code of Military Justice for reciting the Uniform Code of Military Justice?"Sen. Mark Kelly, on Jimmy Kimmel Live4

Sources for this point

  1. 1Rep. Greg Stanton et al. Letter to Secretary Hegseth re: investigation of Sen. Mark Kelly. November 26, 2025. stanton.house.gov
  2. 2CNBC. Pentagon to cut Sen. Mark Kelly's military retirement pay over "seditious" video. January 5, 2026. cnbc.com
  3. 3CNN Politics. Judge says Pete Hegseth is unlawfully retaliating against Sen. Mark Kelly. February 12, 2026. cnn.com
  4. 4ABC News. What Sen. Mark Kelly said about Hegseth after review ordered over video comments. aol.com
08

It's moving too fast for the courts to keep up.

Lawsuits move slowly. Agencies move slowly. Congress moves slowly. Do too many things at once, and by the time a court rules, the fight is already over. People inside the administration have openly said this is the plan.

Courts hear one case at a time. Agencies push back one issue at a time. Congress moves slowly on purpose, so big changes don't happen in a panic. When the number of fights piles up faster than the system can deal with them, court rulings start arriving after the fight on the ground is already over.

People inside the administration have openly said this is the strategy. The "flood the zone" approach was first laid out by Steve Bannon years ago, and now it's being run at full scale. The plan is simple. Do a lot of things at once. Move faster than courts can rule. Move faster than Congress or the media can respond. By the time anyone catches up, the changes have already become the new normal.

Here's the problem this exposes. Our constitutional checks and balances were built for a slower pace. Courts can stop one thing at a time. By the time a judge rules on action A, actions B through M have already happened. The Supreme Court takes months to hear a case, and longer to decide it. Congress can't pass a law to fix anything in less than a few months on a good day, and basically not at all on a bad one.

What you end up with is a new normal that nobody ever ruled on. It's not technically precedent (that requires a court ruling). But it works like one. The new way of doing things just sticks because the system can't keep up with challenging it. And once it sticks, going back to the old way requires somebody actively putting it back. Nobody does.

"
None of these is new on its own. What's new is all of them happening at once, at full speed, while the branch built to push back chooses not to push back.
The Position

What I am, and am not, saying.

For the record

What I'm not saying.

That the country is collapsingOur institutions have made it through worse. The states still have real power. The courts have ruled against this administration plenty of times.

That any single piece is brand newMost of these things have happened before in some form. The argument is about all of them happening together. The combination, and the speed.

That this is inevitableThe next few years come down to specific people in specific rooms. That includes ordinary citizens.

For the record

What I am saying.

This is a real test of the systemCalling it normal partisan fighting is itself a choice. I think it's the wrong one.

"Every President tests limits" is a dodgeIt blurs what's specific about this administration. And it takes pressure off the unwritten rules that only survive when people insist on them.

The honest answer is harder than either reflexKeep paying attention. Stay accurate. There are two easy positions: "nothing is happening" and "everything is over." Both are easier than the truth.

On disagreement

No single item on this list is the whole argument. The whole list is the argument. If most of these are roughly right, then the worry is reasonable. You can weigh them differently and still end up in the same place.

On overreaction

The question I keep coming back to is this: what would have to be happening before being worried is fair? I haven't found a line this moment doesn't already cross.

Josh